Tunisia's External Trade: A Growing Imbalance
Over the first five months of 2026, Tunisia's external trade has shown a worsening imbalance. The trade deficit has reached 10,415.6 million dinars (MD), compared to 8,365.7 MD during the same period last year, according to data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). In other words, the import bill continues to grow faster than export revenues, widening the gap between the two flows.
Export and Import Trends
- Exports have increased by 5% to 28,169.8 MD, but this growth is insufficient compared to the faster rise in imports (+9.6%), which have reached 38,585.4 MD.
- As a result, the coverage rate has fallen to 73%, compared to 76.2% the previous year, indicating a less balanced external trade.
Energy Sector: A Major Concern
- The energy sector remains a significant point of tension, with a deficit of 5,826.2 MD, due to a marked increase in energy imports (+35.1%).
- Although exports of refined products have improved to 636.9 MD, they do not offset the overall dynamic.
- This energy pressure continues to weigh on external balances.
Agro-Food Sector: A Buffer
- In contrast, the agro-food sector has played a buffering role, with a surplus of 943.4 MD, mainly driven by olive oil, whose revenues have risen to 3,047.8 MD, compared to 2,117.3 MD the previous year.
- This performance confirms the importance of this sector in Tunisian exports.
Sectoral Trends
- The trajectories of different sectors have diverged significantly:
- Mechanical and electrical industries have continued to advance, with exports increasing by 6.1%.
- However, other sectors have declined sharply, including mines, phosphates, and derivatives (-31.8%), as well as textiles, clothing, and leather (-6.2%).
- On the import side, the increase is broad and diffuse, affecting not only energy but also food products (+20.1%), equipment goods (+4.1%), and consumer goods (+5.9%).
Geographical Structure of Trade
- The geographical structure of trade remains largely stable, with a strong dependence on Europe, which accounts for 71.5% of Tunisian exports.
- Sales have increased to France (+6.7%) and Italy (+3.5%), but slowed down to Germany and the Netherlands.
- In the Arab world, exports have soared to Egypt (+110%) and Saudi Arabia (+59.9%), while declining to several Maghreb partners, including Morocco, Algeria, and Libya.
- Outside Europe, imports have evolved differently depending on the partner country, increasing from Turkey and India, but declining from Russia and China.
Conclusion
The structure of Tunisian trade remains under tension, without a stabilized equilibrium point. The energy sector continues to be a major concern, while the agro-food sector has played a buffering role. The geographical structure of trade remains largely stable, with a strong dependence on Europe. However, the sectoral trends have diverged significantly, with some sectors advancing while others decline.
