Tunisia Faces "Critical" Water Crisis: Recent Dam Improvements Fail to Reverse Long-Term Scarcity

Tunisia is currently grappling with a "critical" water situation, where recent improvements in dam levels are insufficient to counteract a fundamental trend of increasing water resource scarcity. This is the key finding of the World Bank’s latest bulletin on water, growth, and employment in Tunisia.

Rising Global Water Stress

According to the WRI Aqueduct index, Tunisia currently ranks 23rd globally in terms of water stress. However, long-term projections suggest the country could climb to between the 10th and 12th positions in the coming decades.

• Current Availability: Renewable freshwater availability stands at approximately 380 m³ per capita per year, already below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 m³.
• Future Projections: The World Bank estimates that by 2050, this availability could drop to between 120 and 210 m³ per capita, representing a decline of nearly 70% from current levels due to climate change.

Groundwater Under Pressure

The strain extends to groundwater resources as well:

• Extraction rates have reached 133% of the natural renewal capacity.
• More than 25% of water withdrawals are conducted without proper authorization.

This unsustainable exploitation places immense pressure on reserves with limited renewal potential.

A Good Year Does Not Change the Trend

While the 2025–2026 hydrological year provided temporary relief, it does not alter the underlying crisis. After five consecutive years of below-average precipitation, dam filling rates—which had plummeted to a historic low of 19% in December 2024—recovered to approximately 60–70% between March and May 2026.

However, the World Bank emphasizes that this improvement is conjectural and temporary:

• The frequency of dry years is increasing.
• Aquifer levels continue to decline in several key regions.

The Need for Structural Reform

For Tunisia, the challenge goes beyond managing individual drought episodes. The report calls for a structural response to the anticipated further contraction in water availability. This has direct implications for:

• Agricultural productivity
• Economic activities
• Broader national growth and employment

Addressing this crisis requires long-term strategic planning rather than short-term reactive measures.