Major Risks Threaten Tunisia's Cereal Value Chain, Study Reveals
A recent study conducted by the Platform for Agricultural Risk Management (PARM) in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and the G20 has identified significant risks affecting Tunisia's cereal value chain.
The assessment identified 26 systemic risks covering production, market, prices, logistics, and institutions. Among them, three climate-related risks dominate: shortening of the cereal development cycle, severe to extreme drought, and early maturation date.
Shortening of the Cereal Development Cycle
With a probability of 16.7%, the shortening of the cereal development cycle represents a notable risk, resulting in average losses of 372,000 tons, equivalent to approximately 473 million Tunisian dinars (Mtnd). In the most severe cases, these losses could reach 665,000 tons, causing a financial impact of 823 Mtnd.
Severe to Extreme Drought
The probability of severe to extreme drought is 16.7%, which could translate into average losses of 344,000 tons, representing approximately 393 Mtnd. The maximum losses associated with this risk could reach 605,000 tons, resulting in a financial impact of 691 Mtnd.
Early Maturation Date
The risk of early maturation date, with a probability of 14.3%, generates average losses of 556,000 tons, estimated at 679 Mtnd.
The most vulnerable elements of this value chain remain farmers, exposed to climate hazards, and collectors, affected by difficulties in supplying inputs.
Recommendations
To address these challenges, the study recommends cross-cutting actions, such as investing in climate observation and information systems. Climate insurance for olive growers could also strengthen their resilience to temperature variations. Furthermore, improving the regulatory framework and encouraging sustainable agricultural practices through subsidies appear essential for attracting private investments.
Additionally, implementing measures to protect farmers against natural hazards, particularly by strengthening the Agricultural Damage Compensation Fund (Fidac), is crucial for the stability of Tunisia's agriculture.
