Tunisia’s Trade Deficit Widens to 14.96 Billion TND by July 2026, Driven by Energy Costs

By the end of July 2026, Tunisia’s trade deficit reached 14.96 billion Tunisian dinars (TND), up from 11.90 billion a year earlier. This represents a widening gap of over 3 billion TND in just twelve months, despite a notable surge in export revenues.

The Energy Bill Remains the Primary Driver

Energy costs continue to be the main culprit behind this imbalance. The sector’s deficit climbed from 6.04 to 7.95 billion TND over the past year, driven by a sharp 35.7% increase in foreign energy purchases. This surge mechanically pulled total imports upward, pushing them to 55.60 billion TND—a 13.7% year-on-year rise.

Raw materials and semi-finished goods also weighed heavily on the trade balance, posting a deficit of 3.77 billion TND, followed by capital goods at 2.63 billion. On the export side, mines, phosphates, and derivatives fell by 11.9%, while textiles and apparel declined by 3.6%.

Exports Hold Strong Amid Headwinds

The picture isn’t entirely bleak. Export revenues grew by 9.9%, reaching 40.64 billion TND, fueled by three key drivers:

Mechanical and electrical industries: +10.5%
Agri-food sector: +22.9%
Energy exports: +53.3%

Olive oil sales perfectly illustrate this upward trend, gaining over 1 billion TND in a year to hit 3.59 billion, up from 2.51 billion. As a result, the food sector as a whole closed with a 1 billion TND surplus. This underscores that the trade imbalance remains primarily energy-driven, with the non-energy deficit holding at 7.01 billion TND.

Europe remains Tunisia’s dominant trading partner, accounting for 70.4% of total exports, with French, Italian, and German markets all showing growth. However, one key takeaway looms large: the pace of foreign purchases continues to outstrip the growth of Tunisian exports.

What This Means for Investment

This dynamic strengthens the appeal of high-value export sectors, particularly agri-food and mechanical/electrical industries, whose growth outpaces the national average and naturally attracts export-oriented capital.

Conversely, the persistent energy deficit highlights significant investment potential in local energy production and energy efficiency projects. These initiatives could ultimately reduce the import bill and unlock new entrepreneurial opportunities in a rapidly evolving sector, positioning Tunisia for more sustainable trade balance improvements in the coming years.