Central Bank of Tunisia Publishes 2023 Annual Report
In a challenging context, the Tunisian economy faced several major challenges in 2023. The value-added of the agricultural sector significantly decreased, mainly due to unfavorable climate conditions, including persistent water stress. Additionally, the weak economic performance of the Eurozone reduced demand for Tunisia's main manufacturing industries, which are export-oriented. Furthermore, national production of hydrocarbons and phosphate remained at low levels.
However, the services sector, particularly tourism and transportation, recorded good performances, continuing to recover from the effects of the pandemic, which helped to partially offset the impact of the underperformance of other sectors. As a result, economic growth slowed down, reaching only 0.2% compared to 2.8% in 2022. Excluding agriculture and fishing, growth would have reached 2.2%.
On the demand side, the weakness of domestic demand became an obstacle to growth, with national consumption increasing by only 1.4%, compared to 1.7% the previous year. This is because private consumption only grew by 1.5%, hindered by a high unemployment rate and persistent inflation. Moreover, public consumption experienced a slow evolution of 1.1%, due to budget expenditure compression. Investment, approached by Gross Fixed Capital Formation, also slowed down, both in constant prices (0.5% vs. 2.3%) and in current prices (4.0% vs. 9.3%), leading to a decline in the investment rate to 15.5% of GDP. The national savings rate also decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 5.4% of Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI), exacerbating the financing gap between investment and savings.
Regarding the external sector, the current account deficit of the balance of payments significantly decreased in 2023, reaching 3,433 MTD, or 2.2% of GDP, compared to 8.8% the previous year. This improvement is mainly due to a 32.4% reduction in the trade deficit, benefiting from a 7.9% increase in exports, particularly in manufacturing industries and agricultural products, thanks to a good olive oil harvest, and a 4.4% decrease in imports, mainly due to lower purchases of raw materials and energy, following a decline in their prices on international markets after an exceptional increase in 2022. Moreover, tourism receipts, which increased by 27.7%, and labor income, which rose by 5.4%, contributed to the improvement in the current account balance.
Regarding the labor market, the unemployment rate stood at 16.4% in 2023, compared to 15.2% in 2022. Among young people, this rate climbed from 38.8% to 40.9%.
For 2024, although the Tunisian economy shows signs of improvement, and real GDP is expected to grow by 1.6%, reflecting a better agricultural season and good tourism activity, this growth remains modest, hindered by the underperformance of the hydrocarbon sector in the absence of investments and new discoveries. Moreover, the weak growth prospects for the Eurozone, Tunisia's main trading partner, could continue to negatively affect Tunisian export-oriented industries.
Regarding the labor market, the unemployment rate stood at 16.4% in 2023, compared to 15.2% in 2022. Among young people, this rate climbed from 38.8% to 40.9%.
For 2024, although the Tunisian economy shows signs of improvement, and real GDP is expected to grow by 1.6%, reflecting a better agricultural season and good tourism activity, this growth remains modest, hindered by the underperformance of the hydrocarbon sector in the absence of investments and new discoveries. Moreover, the weak growth prospects for the Eurozone, Tunisia's main trading partner, could continue to negatively affect Tunisian export-oriented industries.
