Positive Start to the Year for the Food Trade Balance
The beginning of the year has been positive for the food trade balance. Projections from the 2026 economic budget for the agriculture and fishing sector indicate that the food trade balance will record a coverage rate of imports by exports of around 97%.
This development is based on assumptions of a 4% growth in the value of food exports, driven by the success of the olive oil campaign and a 20% increase in its revenue, as well as control over the 9% increase in the value of imports, particularly cereal imports, which are expected to be around 10%.
Estimates show a 2.9% growth in the value added of the agricultural sector (at constant prices) for 2026, based on the following forecasts:
- Estimated production of 2 million tons of olive oil, compared to 1.7 million tons during the current season,
- Production of around 18 million quintals of cereals, compared to 19.8 million quintals during the current season,
- Production of around 404,000 tons of dates, compared to 348,000 tons during the current season,
- Production of 141,000 tons of fish and aquaculture products. The expected investments are 1,456.3 million dinars.
We believe that these estimates, developed in late 2025, are cautious and that this year's season, with such rainfall, would be much better. Now, it is necessary to invest heavily in storage, as it is essential to manage abundance.
