Global Oil Market Expects Surplus, Influencing Tunisia's Energy Bill
Due to the anticipated increase in production by OPEC+ member countries and the resumption of crude oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdistan region via Turkey, a surplus is expected in the global market. This anticipation weighs on global prices, leading to a decrease in oil prices, which directly affects Tunisia by reducing its energy bill and alleviating pressure on its public finances.
Impact of Decreasing Oil Prices on Tunisia
The decrease in oil prices, resulting from increased production, a slowdown in global demand, and economic uncertainties, exerts downward pressure on prices. As a net energy-importing country, Tunisia is directly affected by these fluctuations. With a significant energy deficit, the recent drop in crude oil prices could allow the state to make a significant budget saving, contributing to a reduction in the overall trade deficit.
Oil Price Trends
The Brent crude oil price for November delivery fell to $67.53 per barrel, a decrease of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the American WTI crude oil price dropped to $63.10 per barrel, recording a decrease of 0.3%. These declines are part of a trend already observed in recent days. In fact, at the beginning of the week, prices had suffered daily losses of over 3%, the largest since August 2025.
Mixed Effects on Tunisia's Economy
While the decrease in oil prices constitutes an energy advantage for Tunisia, other factors, such as dependence on European markets and a possible global economic slowdown, could limit these effects in the medium term by reducing exports and public revenues.
