Tunisia's Trade Balance Shows Encouraging Signs, but Persistent Weaknesses
Tunisia starts the year on a positive note, with the National Institute of Statistics (INS) revealing encouraging signs in the trade balance for January and February 2026. However, despite this progress, some persistent weaknesses remain.
A Decrease in the Trade Deficit
The trade deficit has decreased by 21% over the first two months of 2026, reaching 2,784 million dinars, compared to 3,517 million dinars during the same period last year. This represents a reduction of over 700 million dinars in just one year.
Increased Exports and Decreased Imports
Exports have increased by 6.2%, while imports have slightly decreased. As a direct consequence, the coverage rate has risen to 79.5%, compared to 74.3% in 2025. In other words, Tunisia is now financing a larger share of its external purchases with its own sales.
The Agro-Food Sector: A Notable Success
The agro-food sector has been a major success story at the beginning of the year. Olive oil exports have surged by nearly 25%, driving the entire sector up by 6.1%. The mechanical and electrical industries have also confirmed their dynamism, with a 14.8% increase.
Weak Points: Phosphates and Oil
However, not all sectors are performing well. Phosphate and derivative exports have plummeted by 24.6%, while crude oil sales have also fallen sharply. These two strategic sectors are struggling, and their decline is weighing on the overall performance.
An Energy Deficit that Refuses to Shrink
The energy deficit remains the Achilles' heel of Tunisia's trade balance, reaching 1,886 million dinars, or two-thirds of the total deficit. It has even slightly worsened compared to last year. As long as the energy bill remains so heavy, the room for maneuver will remain limited.
A Solid European Market, but Arab Neighbors are a Mixed Bag
The European Union absorbs nearly three-quarters of Tunisia's exports, which are on the rise. Sales to France and Germany have accelerated significantly. In contrast, exports to Libya, Morocco, and Algeria have fallen sharply.
