Global Trade Sees Unexpected Boost in 2025
The global trade of goods has seen a significant increase of 4.6% in volume, exceeding the World Trade Organization's (WTO) October forecast of 2.4%. A report published on March 19 highlights an unexpected driver of this growth: artificial intelligence.
Artificial Intelligence Drives Growth
Goods related to artificial intelligence have seen a surge in demand, thanks to global investments. These goods have been able to absorb the shocks of tariff increases and political uncertainties. As a result, exports have reached $26.26 trillion, a 7% increase from 2024. In total, goods and services combined have reached $34.65 trillion, also seeing a 7% increase.
Challenges Ahead for 2026
The WTO predicts a slow growth of only 1.9% in volume of goods. The conflict in the Middle East is expected to worsen the situation. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a surge in oil prices, which could cut 0.5 percentage points from growth. Maritime, air, and tourism transportation are being affected, with high fuel costs and blocked key routes.
A Glimmer of Hope
However, if artificial intelligence maintains its current pace, it could add 0.5 percentage points to growth. China dominates exports with $3.772 trillion, while the United States leads in imports with $3.507 trillion. A rebound is expected in 2027, with a growth rate of 2.6%.
Resilience in 2025, but Headwinds in 2026
The resilience of 2025 is holding strong, but the headwinds in 2026 are expected to pose significant challenges. The WTO's report highlights the need for continued investment in artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies to drive growth and mitigate the effects of global uncertainties.
