Morocco's Economy Expected to Rebound in 2025 with 5% GDP Growth
According to a report by BMI, a research affiliate of Fitch Solutions, Morocco's economy is expected to experience a significant rebound in 2025, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5%. This growth will be primarily driven by the non-agricultural sector, supported by a relaxed monetary policy and a continued increase in foreign direct investments (FDI).
Investment to be the Main Driver of Growth in 2025
Investment is expected to be the main driver of growth in 2025. Bank Al-Maghrib may lower its benchmark interest rate by an additional 25 basis points to 2.25% by the end of the year, making it easier to access credit and stimulating private investment, particularly in key sectors such as automotive, aeronautics, and renewable energy. FDI is expected to continue to flow in, attracted by a favorable business environment and developing infrastructure. In 2024, these investments increased by 55.4% compared to the previous year, illustrating the confidence of international investors.
Private Consumption to Remain a Pillar of Growth
Private consumption is expected to remain a pillar of growth, supported by three factors: an expansionary budget policy with an 11.5% increase in public spending, particularly in public sector salaries; controlled inflation at 1.6%, preserving household purchasing power; and stable remittances from the Moroccan diaspora, favoring domestic demand.
Agricultural Sector Remains a Weak Link
The agricultural sector, which employs nearly 30% of the active population, remains the weak link in Morocco's economy. Unfavorable weather conditions could affect production, impacting household income and contributing to an estimated unemployment rate of 13.3% by the end of the year.
Exports to Contribute Moderately to Growth
Exports are expected to make a moderate contribution to growth. Although the European economy, Morocco's main trading partner, is expected to experience a slight improvement with a growth rate of 1.5% in 2025, the decline in agricultural production could limit Moroccan exports, while agricultural imports are expected to increase to compensate for the deficit.
Tourism: A Promising Growth Lever
Tourism represents a promising growth lever. Thanks to the Africa Cup of Nations (CAN) scheduled for December 2025, the number of visitors is expected to increase from 16.8 million in 2024 to 17.8 million in 2025, generating an increase in tourism revenue and supporting economic growth.
