The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): A Strategic Commercial Challenge

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is far more than a mere regulatory requirement. It represents a strategic commercial challenge that demands early preparation and reliable data. Carbon emissions are becoming an increasingly decisive factor in export costs, profit margins, and supplier selection. Monitoring the trajectory of certificate prices must be a mechanical and systematic process.

Q3 2026 Price Update

For the third quarter of 2026, the European Commission has set the price per tonne of CO2 equivalent at €82.32. This marks an increase compared to the first and second quarters, which recorded valuations of €75.36 and €75.28, respectively.

Why Are Prices Rising?

The price increase is directly explained by the mechanism’s underlying formula. The CBAM certificate price is a direct reflection of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The EU applies a strict linear reduction to the overall cap on authorized emissions. As fewer allowances become available for auction, prices mechanically rise.

Furthermore, 2026 marks the beginning of the gradual phase-out of free allowances previously granted to European industries to help them compete internationally. Consequently, companies must purchase larger volumes on the market. This pressure is compounded by the full integration of the maritime sector, which is required to cover 100% of its emissions this year, and the inclusion of new gases, all of which intensify the overall demand for allowances.

Implications for Tunisian Exporters

Tunisian exporters must anticipate a structural deficit in the supply of allowances, which is driving prices upward. It is essential to factor this upward trend into next year’s budgets.