Inflation Rate Continues to Decelerate in October 2025
The pace of price increases continued to slow down in October 2025, reaching 4.9% compared to 5% the previous month. At the same time in 2024, this rate was 6.7%. Compared to December 2024, the price index shows an appreciation of 4.6%. This decline is mainly explained by the slowdown in the pace of price changes in the food products group, limited to 5.6% in October 2025. However, vegetable and meat prices still show double-digit accelerations, at 15.1% and 11.4%, respectively. Food oils pulled the index down, thanks to a 20.3% decrease.
Underlying Inflation and Price Changes
The underlying inflation rate (excluding food and energy products) decreased to 5.1% after 5.2% the previous month. The prices of free products (not regulated) increased by 6% over the year, while regulated products increased by 1.1%. In particular, the prices of free food products increased by 6.4% compared to 0.2% for regulated food products. In other words, the subsidy policy has helped limit the damage on the inflation side, even if it weighs heavily on the state budget.
Key Takeaways
Two conclusions can be drawn from these figures:
- Production is key to lowering prices: If we want to lower prices, we need to produce more, especially in the agricultural sector. This is a supply-side problem, not a demand-side issue.
- Caution is necessary for monetary policy decisions: The window for revising the benchmark interest rate is widening, but caution is necessary. A decision is expected in the coming months from the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Tunisia, which could help alleviate the financial burdens that consume companies' operating results.
