Payment Default Risks: A Broader Perspective Beyond Cheques
While cheque-related statistics often grab immediate attention, a comprehensive understanding of the evolution in payment default risks requires broadening the analysis to encompass all payment instruments.
Cumulative Rejected Amounts: 2024–2026
During the first half of 2026, cumulative rejected amounts across all instruments (direct debits, transfers, cheques, and bills of exchange) totaled 4,291.881 million Tunisian Dinars (MTND). For comparison:
- H1 2025: 4,776.988 MTND
- H1 2024: 3,553.760 MTND
Note: These figures refer to payment incidents occurring during the initial processing of transactions. A significant portion of these transactions may subsequently be regularized.
Impact of New Cheque Regulations
The implementation of new regulations governing cheques has significantly disrupted the market. In response to a stricter regulatory framework, many economic operators have abandoned cheques in favor of alternative payment methods, triggering cascading liquidity tensions. This difficult transition explains the surge in risk observed in 2025, which marked an all-time high in rejected amounts, even as the total volume of operations declined by 9.6% to 105,808 MTND.
2026 Trends: Volume Rebound and Persistent Risk
In 2026, the overall transaction volume rebounded by 3.6%, while rejected amounts decreased by 10.1% to 4,291.881 MTND. However, the level of rejections remains structurally higher than pre-2025 levels, indicating that liquidity pressures on economic agents have not dissipated.
Risk Migration to Other Instruments
The shift in risk toward other payment instruments has been confirmed. Changes in corporate behavior regarding cheques have led to a redirection of cash flows to other methods (bills of exchange, transfers, and direct debits), resulting in increased rejected amounts for these instruments. Consequently, collection difficulties are now dispersed throughout the financial chain, maintaining constant pressure on corporate working capital.
Implications for Banking and Investment
The persistence of unpaid debts reinforces banks’ risk aversion. In this context, access to financing for companies is likely to remain constrained, exerting a lasting negative impact on the revival of productive investment and consolidating a climate of economic wait-and-see.
