Orange Juice Prices Reach Historic Highs Amid Supply Constraints
Orange juice prices have reached new historic highs due to persistent supply constraints, pushing the industry into crisis mode. July 2024 futures contracts have surpassed $446 (15,000 pounds), a 63.3% increase since the beginning of the year.
Causes of the Price Surge
Prices have been rising rapidly in recent years due to decreased production in the citrus hub of the United States, Florida, and extreme weather conditions in Brazil's major orange-producing regions. Last year's excessive heat in Brazil led to one of the worst orange harvests in over 30 years, with 232.4 million boxes (each weighing 40.8 kilograms) during the 2024-2025 season, a 24% decrease from the previous campaign.
Huanglongbing Disease: A Major Setback
A citrus disease known as Huanglongbing, which has no known cure, has been attacking trees and producing bitter and misshapen fruits, further exacerbating the crisis for orange producers. This issue is expected to wreak havoc on orange groves worldwide for some time to come.
Brazil's Dominant Role in the Global Market
As the largest producer and exporter of orange juice worldwide, Brazil plays an extremely influential role in shaping the global industry, even more so than the United States. The crisis has forced manufacturers and blenders to adapt by considering alternative fruit juices.
Industry Adaptation and Long-Term Consequences
Many have already, or plan to, modify the quantities of juice in their blends to reduce orange juice content and increase other juices, such as pear, apple, and grape. Unfortunately, this situation is expected to persist in the long term, especially since some orange juice market players have observed a significant decline in demand.
Tunisian Citrus Exports Benefit from the Crisis
The crisis has, however, benefited Tunisian citrus exports. Although volumes have decreased, revenues have improved. The average price per kilogram has been established at 2,090 dinars, a 26.7% year-over-year increase. This presents an opportunity to boost our agricultural exports, provided we avoid falling victim to the same pitfalls.
