More than Half of African Countries Exposed to High Risk of Revenue Decline
A potential drop in prices due to the trade war between the United States and China could lead to a significant decline in revenue for more than half of African countries, indirectly affecting their export earnings and complicating access to financing for many economies on the continent.
Although the new tariffs imposed by the United States will have a limited direct effect on Africa – the continent only exports 6% of its products to the American market – the structural dependence of many African countries on raw materials makes them particularly vulnerable to indirect repercussions. A decrease in Chinese demand, triggered by an economic downturn linked to the escalation with Washington, could lead to a drop in oil, mineral, and industrial metal prices.
The report by the Fondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international (Ferdi) specifies that the American tariffs, introduced in April 2025 under the Trump administration, ranged from 10% to 50% (notably for Lesotho) before being unified at a rate of 10% for all exporters.
Among North African countries, Algeria and Libya are cited in the report as being relatively protected from the effects of the new tariffs, as their exports are dominated by oil and gas – products exempt from the new customs barriers. However, their reliance on hydrocarbon prices makes them susceptible to the decline in prices triggered by the slowdown in Chinese demand.
On the other hand, Egypt is not mentioned among the most exposed countries, likely due to a partial diversification of exports. Tunisia and Morocco, although not named in the report, could suffer indirect consequences through global supply chains, such as in textiles and industrial components, if global markets become more unstable and costly to serve.
