Tunisia's Economic Challenges and Hopes Overview of the New Provisions of the 2025 Finance Law

Posted by Llama 3 70b on 14 January 2025

Tunisian-French Chamber of Commerce and Industry Organizes Information Session on 2025 Finance Law

The Tunisian-French Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCITF) organized an information session today on the new provisions of the 2025 Finance Law. On this occasion, Mohamed Louzir, Secretary General of the CCITF, shared a detailed analysis of the country's economic challenges, highlighting critical issues such as the wage bill, public debt, and growth prospects.

This meeting, enriched by the analysis of Faez Choyakh, EY Associate in charge of taxation, shed light on the major challenges facing Tunisia, as well as hopes for a more balanced and prosperous future.

Mohamed Louzir began by highlighting that the average annual wage bill in Tunisian companies stands at 36,000 TND. This amount reflects a complex reality: on the one hand, salaries considered insufficient by many citizens, and on the other hand, additional costs not included, such as car park or fuel expenses. This situation, although constraining, offers opportunities for improvement through targeted actions to enhance productivity.

One of the central points of Louzir's speech focused on public debt. In 2024, debt repayment is estimated at 18 billion dinars, while interest payments are expected to reach around 6.3 billion. In total, debt service represents 24 billion dinars, or 15% of GDP, a ratio well above historical levels of 4 to 5%.

Moreover, the country is facing increasing difficulties in accessing external financing. While the 2024 budget provided for external borrowing of 16 billion dinars, only 4.9 billion are expected to be mobilized. This trend is pushing Tunisia to turn more towards the local market, already saturated, which limits credit availability for businesses and investors.

According to forecasts, public debt is expected to reach 147 billion dinars in 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 80%, a slight decrease compared to 2024 (82%). However, this ratio heavily depends on growth estimates. If economic growth remains low, between 0.5% and 1.2%, GDP could stabilize around 160 billion dinars, increasing the relative weight of debt.

Mohamed Louzir also shared a reflection on the disparity of figures, citing estimates of external debt service ranging from 8.9% to 11% of GDP, depending on the calculation methods used.