Industrial Survey: A Glimmer of Hope for Tunisian Industry

Published on the same day as the growth and unemployment indicators, the new survey on the situation and prospects of industrial enterprises went unnoticed. However, it is of paramount importance, especially since it concerns the manufacturing industry, Tunisia's primary source of foreign exchange.

Improvement in Global Context

The results show an improvement in the global context during the first quarter of 2024 (score of 13%) compared to the last quarter of 2023 (score of 4%). Similarly, for the period from April to June 2024, industrialists are counting on an index of 28%, 2% lower than the expectations at the beginning of the year. There is still a dose of caution, as nothing structural has changed in the last few months.

Production and Expectations

This reflects the level of industrial production during this period, with a slight sequential increase (1%). Expectations are rather positive, at 21%.

Industry-Specific Expectations

By industry, only mechanical and electronic industries (16%) and agri-food industries (18%) expect a decline in the second quarter of the year. Chemical industries (12%), construction materials, glass, and ceramics (23%), and textile-clothing (23%) seem to have good prospects.

Challenges in Production

The proportion of companies experiencing difficulties in production during the first quarter of 2024 rose to 55.9%, an increase of 190 basis points compared to the previous quarter. This is mainly due to problems with raw material supply, market size, and marketing, lack of financing, equipment shortages, and spare parts shortages. This weighs on the optimal use of industrial tools, estimated at 73%, and therefore the capacity to recruit at its lowest level since the last quarter of 2023.

Demand for Production

A decline was observed in demand for production in the first quarter of 2024, at 6%. This is the lowest score in 9 quarters. Another decline is expected for the second quarter of 2024, at 20%. External demand remains modest, with estimates at 16% for the current quarter. Order books have improved but remain at a low level of 9%.

Global Outlook

Overall, the figures indicate a slight improvement for the Tunisian industry in the coming months. If we translate this into GDP figures, and considering the difficulties observed during the first quarter, we should not expect a miracle in growth.