Tunisia's Tourism Sector: A Promising Future Ahead
Study Reveals Potential for Significant Growth by 2030
A study presented by Safouane Ben Aissa, a consultant with the IACE, at the 9th edition of the Tunisia Economic Forum on September 18, 2025, has unveiled the potential of Tunisia's tourism sector by 2030. According to the ambitious scenario developed by the team, tourism revenues could exceed 13 billion dinars, with 25% of this amount generated by five strategic segments: senior tourism, health tourism, rural tourism, rental tourism, and high-end tourism.
Socioeconomic Impact and Job Creation
Beyond revenue, the socioeconomic impact is significant. The sector could create up to 32,000 to 33,000 additional jobs and generate 612 million dinars in VAT, not to mention other tax benefits, such as income tax from foreign retirees residing in Tunisia or the tourist tax. These figures translate to a potential for diversification and deseasonalization that could reposition Tunisian tourism as a strategic sector of the economy.
Three Scenarios Studied
Three scenarios were studied:
- Conservative scenario: assumes a status quo, with limited growth and the persistence of current gaps.
- Central scenario: projects linear development based on the strengthening of beach and health tourism, to reach around 12 billion dinars by 2030.
- Ambitious scenario: relies on clear public policies and enhanced collaboration with the private sector, allowing the sector to reach the threshold of 13 billion dinars, or more than 3 billion dinars in additional revenue compared to the base scenario.
Key Findings and Recommendations
The study highlights that certain segments, such as rental tourism, currently operate largely in the informal sector, representing a tax loss and a distortion of competition. The consultant cited the example of France, where Airbnb was forced to transmit all its tax data to the authorities. In Tunisia, better regulation could transform this market into a powerful lever for state revenue.
- Senior tourism, targeting a European retired clientele, remains underexploited, despite strong demand, particularly in winter and spring.
- Health tourism, already recognized for its quality-price ratio, requires strategic monitoring and regulatory framework to capture more foreign patients.
- Rural tourism and boutique hotels offer prospects for heritage enhancement and regional rebalancing but require an incentive tax framework.
Need for Strategic Monitoring and Cooperation
Safouane Ben Aissa emphasized the need for Tunisia to have a true strategic monitoring system. Currently, data is fragmented and does not allow for proper tracking of competitors or global trends. "We are not yet equipped to develop a solid strategic vision in the sector," he warned, calling for the establishment of a national dashboard and better coordination between public and private actors.
Conclusion
This IACE study highlights that the structuring of new segments represents not only an opportunity for economic growth but also a means of positioning Tunisia sustainably on the global tourism chessboard.
