National Savings in Free Fall: A Disappointing 2023
Nothing is going well in terms of national savings. Despite signs of improvement, the final figures for 2023 are a disappointment. National savings have continued to decline at an alarming rate, dropping by 28% year-over-year. This trend has resulted in a decrease in the savings rate, from 8.1% of Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) in 2022 to 5.4% last year, compared to an investment rate of 15.5% of GDP. As a result, the financing gap between investment and savings has widened to 9.9% of GDP (7.8% of GDP considering stock variations).
This weakening of national savings for the second consecutive year is linked to the sluggishness of economic activity, combined with inflation affecting the income of various economic agents, and the increase in global consumption. Additionally, the moderate growth of transfers from Tunisian residents abroad (+3.7%), which reached 8,676 million Tunisian dinars, has contributed to this trend.
On the demand side, the weakness of domestic demand has become an obstacle to growth, with national consumption increasing by only 1.4%. Private consumption has grown by a mere 1.5%, hindered by high unemployment and persistent inflation. Furthermore, public consumption has experienced a slow evolution of 1.1%, due to the compression of budget expenditures.
Moreover, investment, approached through Gross Fixed Capital Formation, has also slowed down in both constant prices (0.5% in 2023 compared to 2.3% in 2022) and current prices (4.0% in 2023 compared to 9.3% in 2022), leading to a decline in the investment rate to 15.5% of GDP.
This explains the current stalemate. As long as this financing gap exists, it is futile to hope for a quick exit from the crisis. Implementing the necessary financing mechanisms must be the government's top priority, especially since the Central Bank's estimates for this ratio are only 4.6% in 2024.
