Economic Context Remains Challenging Due to Structural Difficulties
If the economic context remains tight, it's because there are certain structural difficulties that prevent the economy from restarting. The first of these is the weakness of national savings.
The last few years were disappointing in this regard, and we now have the figures for 2025. An improvement was observed at 9,471 MTND, up 1.5% compared to 2024, but still below the 9,828 MTND recorded in 2023. This slight improvement can be explained by the increase in domestic savings, supported by the progression of economic activity. The growth of nominal GDP (+8%) was faster than that of consumption (+7.4%). In addition, there was a positive contribution from the external sector, particularly through the increase in transfers made by Tunisians living abroad, which totaled 11,445 MTND, or 6.6% of GDP.
Central Administration Savings
The savings of the Central Administration continued to improve for the second consecutive year, due to an increase in own resources, particularly tax revenues, at a more sustained pace than that of operating expenses. Thus, the surplus of own resources and donations compared to current expenses (including debt interest) rose from 409 MTND in 2024 to 903 MTND in 2025.
However, compared to the RNDB, the national savings rate declined to 5.3% compared to 5.6% in 2024. Overall, this level remains low and has only allowed for the coverage of 9.3% of equipment expenses, compared to 4.1% in 2024. Moreover, the domestic financing rate of FBCF (Fixed Capital Formation) has decreased, falling from 38.4% to 35.4% the previous year. The objective for 2026 is to achieve savings of 11,021 MTND, or a savings rate of 5.7%.
Insufficient Domestic Savings
The insufficiency of domestic savings is structural, linked in particular to the weakness of incomes, a high propensity to consume, and persistent budgetary imbalances. Under these conditions, the financing of FBCF continues to depend largely on external resources, particularly through external debt and net foreign investment flows. This is why external debt remains vital for economic growth. It just needs to be oriented towards creating value, not towards current expenses.
