Tunisia's Exports to Algeria: A Missed Opportunity
Despite strong geographical, linguistic, and cultural proximity, as well as evident commercial complementarity, Tunisian exports to the Algerian market struggle to take off, not exceeding 3% of the total goods exported by Tunisia over the past decade. This is revealed by a new analysis from the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies (ITCEQ).
The complementarity index, a key indicator measuring the match between a country's export offer and another country's import demand, averages 42% between Tunisia and Algeria from 2011 to 2021. Although this figure is slightly lower than those observed with major European partners (France: 57%, Germany: 60%, Italy: 51%), it confirms a solid basis for more intense exchanges.
Moreover, Tunisia shows good competitiveness in certain products, where it occupies respectable positions on a global scale. This is the case for basic mineral chemistry (2nd supplier to Algeria), glass (4th), and measuring instruments (8th), which display significant market shares.
ITCEQ estimates Tunisia's total export potential on the Algerian market at $442 million, with a realization rate of 67%. This means that a growth margin exists. A finer analysis by the International Trade Centre (ITC) suggests that the untapped potential could reach up to 63% of the total potential by 2029, if Tunisia manages to target specific product niches.
The study identifies five key product groups where the untapped potential is highest:
- Machinery, electricity, and electronics: this sector represents nearly 23% of the total potential and 28% of the untapped potential.
- Clothing and footwear: these groups stand out with the most significant untapped potential, reaching 97% of the total to be exploited for both categories, suggesting a major opportunity.
- Chemical products.
- Horology and optical instruments.
- Plastic and rubber products.
On the contrary, sectors such as fertilizers, metals, vegetable oils, and fats, as well as glassware, display very low untapped potential rates (respectively 99%, 95%, 92%, and 84% realization), indicating that Tunisia is already exploiting these niches well.
