Tunisia’s Trade Deficit Widens in First Nine Months of 2026 Despite Export Growth

TUNIS – Foreign trade figures through the end of September 2026 confirm the persistence of structural tensions in Tunisia’s external balances. Despite a notable upward momentum in exports, the continued surge in imports has kept the trade balance under significant pressure.

Key Trade Statistics (Jan–Sep 2026)

• Exports: Reached 50,400 MTND, marking an 8.6% increase year-on-year.
• Imports: Rose to 71,397 MTND, a 13.1% increase.
• Trade Deficit: Expanded significantly to –20,997 MTND, compared to –16,727 MTND in the same period last year.
• Coverage Ratio: Declined to 70.6%.

Sectoral Performance: Exports

The improvement in export performance was primarily driven by the agro-food sector, which surged by 20.3%. This growth was fueled by a sharp rise in olive oil sales, which reached 4,005.7 MTND.

The energy industries also contributed positively, posting a 43.1% increase, driven by the recovery in refined products, which totaled 1,396.2 MTND. Additionally, mechanical and electrical industries showed a positive trend, growing by 9.9% to reach 24,926.9 MTND.

Conversely, other key sectors experienced declines:

• Mines, phosphates, and derivatives: Dropped by 16.5% to 1,433.1 MTND.
• Textiles and apparel: Fell by 4.7% to 7,894.1 MTND.

Import Trends

On the import side, the increase was widespread across all major aggregates. The most significant rise was observed in energy products, which jumped by 32% to 13,309.9 MTND. This trend reflects the country’s growing dependence on external supply for energy needs.

Structural Analysis: The Energy Bill

A detailed analysis of balances by product group highlights the central role of the energy bill. The energy deficit reached –10,480 MTND, accounting for nearly half of the total trade deficit and largely offsetting the positive performance of other sectors.

Excluding energy, the trade deficit is halved to –10,517 MTND. In this context, the food products group remains one of the few sectors with a surplus, posting a positive balance of +919.8 MTND.

Geographical Distribution

Geographically, the European Union (EU) remains Tunisia’s dominant trading partner by a wide margin. The EU absorbed 70.2% of Tunisia’s exports and supplied 44.8% of its imports.

Outlook

In light of these statistics, the resilience of the Tunisian economy will depend on its ability to accelerate the energy transition and unlock the full potential of its high-value-added export sectors.