Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Economic Update
The World Bank's latest report on the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan describes a region in a state of "economic suspended time." Growth is expected to reach only 1.8% by 2026, a level insufficient to meet employment needs, absorb demographic dynamics, and offer real prospects for young people.
Recent Conflicts and Their Impact
Recent conflicts have disrupted trade routes, weakened energy systems, increased exchange costs, and created lasting uncertainty that hinders investment. Strategic infrastructures, such as the Strait of Hormuz, illustrate this contagion effect. Disruptions to these infrastructures lead to higher oil and gas prices, which affect global costs, fuel inflation, and particularly weaken importing countries. The impact also extends to agriculture, through higher fertilizer prices, with risks to food security. At the same time, interest rates remain high to contain inflation, which further slows down investment and growth, according to the same source.
Non-Uniform Impacts
However, the impacts are neither homogeneous nor uniform. They depend heavily on the proximity to conflict zones and the degree of dependence of economies on trade and energy flows. Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and some Gulf states are directly affected, particularly through sanctions, trade disruptions, and infrastructure vulnerability. Gulf countries and Iraq are particularly exposed due to their dependence on oil and strategic routes. More indirectly, countries like Egypt, Jordan, or Pakistan suffer from higher energy prices, decreased tourism, reduced diaspora transfers, and pressure on public finances.
Common Reality
Beyond these differences, the World Bank highlights a common reality: these shocks exacerbate existing structural fragilities, including low economic diversification, limited private sector, youth unemployment, and high debt, as stated in the report. Successive crises (pandemic, war in Ukraine, regional conflicts) have prevented lasting stabilization and delayed reforms.
Incomplete Growth
Growth exists, but it remains incomplete. It does not translate enough into jobs and improvement in daily life.
The Importance of Peace
Finally, the report emphasizes a central term: peace. Peace is an essential condition for development. Without it, no economic strategy can function sustainably. War represents a "reverse development," which can erase up to 35 years of progress in terms of per capita income in affected countries.
Conclusion
In conclusion, conflicts appear less as punctual shocks and more as structural factors that durably hinder the economic trajectory of the entire region.
