External Trade Figures for March 2024: A Sluggish Performance
The National Institute of Statistics (INS) has just released the external trade figures for March 2024, taking into account seasonal variations and calendar effects. This treatment provides a more accurate reading of the economic situation.
In March, commercial exchanges were characterized by a slowdown in exports, which decreased by 1.3% compared to February 2024. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline. The industries most affected by this trend are:
- Mechanical and electrical industries (-6.4%)
- Agriculture and agri-food industries (-16.3%), mainly due to a decline in olive oil sales
- Textiles and clothing (-5.5%)
- Leather (-23.2%)
- Miscellaneous manufacturing industries (-9.3%)
On a more positive note, the energy sector has finally shown signs of recovery, with a remarkable 196% increase in exports. The mining, phosphates, and derivatives sector also experienced a 42.9% growth.
Imports followed a similar trend, decreasing by 2% in sequential rhythm. This decline is attributed to all product groups, except for energy products (+22%) and raw materials and semi-finished products (+4.8%). The decline affected:
- Capital goods (-21.7%)
- Consumer goods (-11%), particularly passenger cars
- Food products (-16.1%), mainly due to a decrease in sugar imports
Overall, excluding energy products, imports decreased by 7.6%.
These figures demonstrate that Tunisian factories are far from operating at full capacity. This could add another layer of difficulty to the country's efforts to regain a growth momentum. It's not just a matter of European demand, but a global context marked by uncertainty and a depressed consumer base, affected by a long cycle of inflation. While public finances show resilience, the productive sectors are approaching a critical point.
