Tunisia to Surpass Italy in Olive Oil Production
According to estimates, Tunisia is expected to produce between 380,000 and 400,000 tonnes of olive oil during the 2025-26 campaign. Some observers even suggest a potential of 500,000 tonnes. Italy, which has long dominated the market, is expected to limit its production to around 300,000 tonnes. As a result, Tunisia will take the second place globally, just behind Spain.
A Shift in the Global Olive Oil Hierarchy
The news, reported by the Financial Times, has made a significant impact, although it is not entirely surprising. Recently, an alternating production pattern and a particularly "mediocre" year had already relegated Italy to fourth place, surpassed by Greece and Tunisia. This time, Tunisia's overtaking of Italy does not seem like a mere coincidence. Instead, it outlines a lasting change in the Mediterranean olive oil hierarchy.
What Happened?
Several factors explain the increase in Tunisian production. The rise in international prices around 2024, linked to a temporary decline in Spanish supply due to drought, gave a significant boost to local producers. Tunisian olive trees benefited from favorable conditions, and the attractive market encouraged harvesting and investment in the sector.
Understanding the Numbers
To better comprehend these figures, it is essential to recall that in the early 2000s, Italy was still producing nearly 800,000 tonnes of olive oil. In just a quarter of a century, the situation has evolved significantly. New competitors have emerged in the market, while the traditional Italian olive grove has seen its position weaken.
A New Era for Tunisian Olive Oil
The predicted production levels for Tunisia mark a significant milestone in the country's olive oil industry. As the global market continues to shift, Tunisia is poised to become a major player, challenging the dominance of traditional producers like Italy. With its favorable climate and growing investment in the sector, Tunisia is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for high-quality olive oil.
