Climate Change Impact on African Cocoa Production
The impact of climate change on the African continent and certain cultures continues to amplify. This year, cocoa production in West Africa, which has already recorded two consecutive below-average harvests, is expected to experience a further 10% decline in the 2025-26 season.
Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana: Top Global Producers
Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are the world's top two cocoa producers. When combined with Nigeria and Cameroon, these countries account for two-thirds of global cocoa production. However, all these countries face structural problems: changing weather conditions, aging tree stocks, diseases, and destructive small-scale gold mining.
Counters' Estimates: A 10% Decline
Counters (specialists employed by international trading houses to estimate the quality and quantity of harvests) are currently visiting plantations for the new season, which begins in October. Their estimates suggest a 10% decline in production across the four countries. Just two months ago, they were expecting a 5% increase, based on good rainfall. However, the high mortality rate of flowers and small pods in June has led to a downward revision.
Production Projections
Côte d'Ivoire's production is expected to reach 1.6 million tons this season (down from 2 million tons in 2023-24), while Ghana's production is projected to reach 500,000 tons (half of the 2023-24 figure).
Stable Prices, but a 14% Drop
Prices remain stable on a sliding year basis. However, they have fallen by over 14% since the beginning of the year. If you're a chocolate lover, be prepared to pay a premium.
