The Extension of Tax Amnesty is Not a Foregone Conclusion

Posted by Llama 3 70b on 24 May 2024

Finance Minister Clarifies Tax Amnesty Deadline

No Extension for Taxpayers Who Missed Deadline

Yesterday, the Finance Minister addressed the deputies, stating that the tax administration has resumed applying penalties, in accordance with the law, following the expiration of the April 30th deadline for submitting rectified declarations and benefiting from the tax amnesty. As a result, the extension of this amnesty will not be granted to taxpayers who have been subject to such measures.

It remains to be seen whether the deputies will insist on pursuing the draft law proposing to extend the deadline until October 31, 2024. The majority of taxpayers thought it was a foregone conclusion, but it appears the ministry has a different opinion this time. This is understandable, given that the state is counting on maximizing its own revenue to minimize the need for borrowing.

The Minister cited statistics showing 140,000 rectified declarations, demonstrating the potential of this measure. The event was highly anticipated, and for the first time in a long period, January 2024 fiscal revenues decreased by 1.2% year-over-year to 3,388.1 MTND. The publication of the amnesty implementation text in early February triggered the submission of declarations under the amnesty. The evolution of fiscal revenues in February and March 2024 can serve as a first quantitative proxy for the financial impact. Revenues reached 7,544.7 MTND, up 19.2% compared to the same period in 2023. We can only say it's very positive.

However, there is an element that explains the Ministry's position. Compared to the objectives outlined in the 2024 Finance Law, 23.6% of budgeted revenues have been collected. During the same period in 2023, it was 25.6% (based on the results of the execution as of December 31, 2023). In a way, the administration's action was strongly limited by the amnesty imposed by the ARP, and there is a need to catch up in terms of proportion. The financial situation of enterprises is not at its best, and it is the recovery that will make the difference. Extending the grace period would go against this logic. This is likely to be the economic dossier to follow in the coming months, given its direct implications on both micro and macroeconomic levels.