Impact of Israel-US Hostilities on the Tunisian Stock Market
On February 28, Israel and the United States launched hostilities against Iran. The day before this event, the Tunisian Stock Exchange had closed with a yearly performance of 12.82%, for a market capitalization of 39,524 million Tunisian dinars (Mtnd). Yesterday, the flagship index of the Tunisian market showed a yearly progression of 11.37%, with a total valuation of 38,608 Mtnd. In other words, the military escalation has already caused approximately 916 Mtnd to evaporate from the market.
Resilience of the Tunisian Stock Market
So far, the Tunisian Stock Exchange has shown resilience. It is true that the direct exposure of most listed companies to the affected markets remains marginal. However, they will inevitably suffer the macroeconomic repercussions of a conflict that, if it were to spread, could darken the outlook for a long time.
Expected Market Trend
In this context, the downward trend observed is not abnormal. It would have been surprising if the market had continued its upward trend without faltering. The most plausible scenario is a continuation of caution during the next sessions, in the absence of clear signs of easing.
Outlook for the Conflict
That being said, this conflict should not last indefinitely, unless there is a major unexpected event. No one has an interest in the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked, as this would weaken the entire global economy. Concessions will eventually emerge, and with them, a gradual return to stability.
Opportunities on the Market
In the meantime, opportunities are beginning to emerge on the market. The dividend season is already underway. It is therefore essential to closely follow the publications of companies and identify those with solid fundamentals, offering an estimated net yield of over 7%. Such a return not only covers inflation but also far surpasses the profitability of a simple savings account.
Excessive Price Drops
Moreover, some price drops may seem excessive, often resulting from position liquidations. This is another opportunity not to be neglected. Placing hidden orders in order books, targeting high-potential yield securities, can prove to be a profitable strategy.
Investment Strategy
In this period of high uncertainty, clear and rigorous investment criteria are your best asset for profitable stock picking.
