Central Bank of Tunisia Eases Monetary Policy
The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) has decided to relax its monetary policy. Meeting on December 30, 2025, its Board of Directors announced a 50 basis point cut in the key interest rate, bringing it down from 7.5% to 7%, a measure that will come into effect on January 7, 2026.
Context of the Decision
This decision is made in a context marked by a slowdown in inflation and a decline in national economic growth. Following this decision, the BCT also revised the rates for 24-hour facilities. The lending rate is set at 8%, while the deposit rate is reduced to 6%. The goal is to preserve the consistency of the interest rate corridor and ensure a smooth transmission of monetary policy to the financial market.
Other Notable Measures
Another notable measure is the reduction of the minimum savings remuneration rate to 6%, down from 6.5% previously.
Rationale Behind the Decision
The decision is based on an in-depth analysis of the economic and financial situation, both internationally and nationally. Globally, the economy showed relative resilience in 2025, despite an unstable environment marked by geopolitical tensions and a tightening of certain protectionist policies. This resilience was supported by the decline in international commodity prices, particularly energy, and an easing of international financial conditions.
Economic Situation in Tunisia
In Tunisia, the economic dynamic has weakened. Growth reached 2.4% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter. Excluding agriculture, growth is even more moderate, limited to 1.5%, penalized by the underperformance of key sectors such as energy, textiles, clothing, and leather.
External Situation
On the external front, the trade deficit worsened to 20.2 billion dinars over the first eleven months of 2025, compared to 16.8 billion a year earlier, due to an increase in imports. However, the good performance of tourism revenues and labor income has limited the current account deficit to 2.4% of GDP, compared to 1.2% in the same period of 2024.
Foreign Exchange Reserves and Currency
Foreign exchange reserves stood at 25.5 billion dinars, covering 108 days of imports at the end of December 2025. The dinar, for its part, continues to show resilience, with an appreciation against the dollar and a moderate adjustment against the euro.
Inflation Under Control
The inflation rate remained at 4.9% in November 2025, confirming the continuation of the disinflation process, albeit at a slow pace. This trend is mainly due to the slowdown in inflation of products with administered prices and a slight easing of fresh food prices, whose inflation has returned to 11.1%. On the other hand, underlying inflation continues to increase gradually, reaching 4.7%. Over the entire year 2025, average inflation is expected to be 5.4%, compared to 7% in 2024.
