Inflation in Tunisia to Slow Down but Remain Above 5%
The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) predicts in its latest economic report published on April 7, 2025, that inflation will slow down but not disappear. According to projections, the inflation rate is expected to decrease from 7% in 2024 to around 5.3% on average between 2025 and 2026. A moderate decline, indeed, but one that keeps inflation above the 5% threshold, considered relatively high for durable price stability.
This moderate slowdown is largely explained by an expected decrease in olive oil prices, an essential product in Tunisian household consumption. This trend should mitigate the impact of several upward factors, such as wage increases, international price tensions, and production difficulties in the agricultural and public sectors.
Administered Prices Remain Under Pressure
Administered prices, fixed or framed by the State, are also expected to slow down in the short term. This is due to the 3.5% decrease in electricity tariffs in February 2025 and the maintenance of price freezes on several basic products like cereals, vegetable oils, and fuels. As a result, administered price inflation is expected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, before rising to 4.6% in 2026. However, this easing remains fragile, as the growing weight of subsidies, particularly in the energy sector, could lead to upward revisions of these prices in the coming years.
Fresh Products Remain Expensive
Regarding fresh food products, inflation remains more pronounced. It is expected to exceed 10% in the first half of 2025, before gradually decreasing to 7.5% in 2026, according to the BCT. This decline will largely depend on climate evolution and the agricultural sector's ability to meet demand. On an annual average, inflation in this category is expected to decrease from 11.7% in 2024 to 9.5% in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026 – still above the historical average of 5%.
Underlying Inflation Remains Challenging to Control
The underlying inflation index (excluding fresh products and administered prices) reflects structural price tensions. This rate is also expected to decrease: from 7% in 2024 to 5% in 2025 and 2026. However, several factors could slow down this trend, including wage increases, consumption recovery, and indirect effects of public price adjustments. Excluding food and energy, inflation is expected to decrease from 6.6% in 2024 to 5.7% in 2025, and then 5.3% in 2026.
