Tunisia’s Industrial Output Rises 2.9% in H1 2026, But Sectoral Divides Persist
By the end of the first half of 2026, Tunisia’s productive apparatus posted positive growth, with the Industrial Production Index (IPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year. This upward trajectory was reinforced in the second quarter, which recorded a 1.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025.
A Classic Cyclical Pattern
A closer look at the monthly trajectory reveals a familiar cyclical rhythm: a trough in March followed by a sharp acceleration throughout Q2, culminating in an index reading of 96.7 in June.
Growth Driven by a Narrow Set of Sectors
However, this aggregate figure masks significant sectoral disparities. The first half’s performance was largely propelled by a limited number of cyclical drivers rather than broad-based manufacturing momentum. Three key industries anchored the overall results:
- Agro-food industries surged 9.3% over six months (+2.6% in Q2), heavily buoyed by a dramatic 44% jump in the oils and fats subsector.
- Oil refining posted an exceptional 123.4% year-on-year increase for H1, following a return to normal operations after major technical shutdowns in 2025.
- Mechanical and electrical industries (IME) reaffirmed their role as an industrial cornerstone, growing 4.0% in H1 and 3.8% in Q2, fueled by strong output in electrical equipment (+9.5%) and communication devices (+9.6%).
Strategic Sectors Face Pronounced Contraction
In stark contrast, several foundational sectors experienced notable declines, weighing on the national production balance:
- Chemical industries contracted 9.2% over the first half (-6.4% in Q2), directly tied to a 29.6% collapse in basic chemical production.
- Mining activity declined 3.5% in H1 and plunged 9.9% in Q2, hampered by reduced extraction of fertilizer-grade minerals.
- Textiles, apparel, and leather remained under pressure, shrinking 3.4% in H1.
- Construction materials and ceramics fell 4.1%, reflecting persistent demand weakness in the building sector.
Structural Insights & The Road Ahead
These figures underscore fundamental realities about Tunisia’s industrial economy. Export-integrated manufacturing chains and sectors that add value to agricultural harvests maintain robust activity levels. Conversely, upstream mining, energy, and chemical industries continue to grapple with structural operational and supply chain constraints.
The outsized impact of the refining base effect and olive oil seasonality suggests that underlying growth remains modest. To consolidate this recovery, policymakers must urgently address logistical bottlenecks in the mining basin and stimulate targeted industrial investment to broaden the foundation of domestic value-added production.
