Detailed Review of Budget Execution as of December 2025
A detailed examination of the budget execution as of December 2025 reveals significant discrepancies between the forecasts of the 2025 finance law and the actual achievements for certain categories of tax revenues.
Two Major Posts Show Slower Growth than Expected
Two major areas have shown growth that is lower than anticipated.
- Value-Added Tax (VAT): VAT generated 11,724.5 billion units of currency (Mtnd) by the end of 2025, compared to estimated revenues of 12,028 Mtnd. This can be attributed to a deceleration in household consumption, which has been impacted by reduced purchasing power and increased precautionary savings. When combined with the figures for circulating banknotes and coins, this could indicate a greater reliance on the parallel market. Additionally, there has been a slowdown in activity in certain contributing sectors, such as extractive industries or construction.
- Consumption Taxes: Consumption taxes recorded revenues of 4,237.5 Mtnd, compared to the estimated 4,296.0 Mtnd. Although the gap is not significant, it may suggest a shift in consumption habits towards less taxed products and the development of a parallel market for the most heavily taxed products (tobacco, fuel), which evade taxation. Once again, this is linked to the contraction of purchasing power.
Customs Duties Exceed Expectations
On the other hand, customs duties have shown stronger growth than expected in the finance law (2,278.9 Mtnd collected compared to 2,111 Mtnd expected). This increase can be explained by an increase in the volume of imports, particularly of equipment or consumer goods, which mechanically generates more revenue. The decline in local production for certain products has been offset by imports, and the trade deficit is a testament to this. Furthermore, the strengthening of customs controls and improved fight against fraud have enabled the capture of a larger share of the duties owed.
Implications of Discrepancies
These discrepancies between forecasts and actual achievements may reflect a certain transformation of behaviors. The underperformance of consumption taxes raises questions about the actual evolution of demand for taxed products and the effectiveness of tax control in these sectors. Once again, these figures reinforce the need to broaden the tax base to secure state revenues in the medium term.
