Tunisia’s Interbank Rate Finally Moves: TMM Hits 7.00%

The Tunisian Interbank Rate (TMM) has finally shifted. After remaining steady at 6.99% since the start of spring, the rate ticked up by one basis point in August to reach 7.00%, according to data from the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT). While a single basis point may seem negligible, it marks the first movement in this key indicator in months.

A Fine-Tuning of Liquidity Conditions

On the interbank market, this shift is primarily interpreted as a fine-tuning of liquidity conditions. The broader trajectory, however, has remained downward for three consecutive years: the rate stood at 8% in August 2023, hovered near 8% throughout 2024, dropped to 7.5% last year, and now sits at 7%.

Since the TMM closely tracks the policy rate, any future decision by the BCT regarding the policy rate will automatically ripple through to the TMM.

Concrete Impact on Credit

In practical terms, this rate is directly factored into the calculation of bank interest charges and the pricing of variable-rate loans. Even this symbolic increase will result in a slightly higher cost for businesses and individuals holding variable-rate debt.

The market will now wait to see if the BCT confirms this upward trend in the coming months or if the August move was merely a temporary, seasonal fluctuation.

Implications for Investment

For SMEs financed through variable-rate loans, every basis point matters over the life of the loan. While a 1-basis-point increase may appear negligible on short-term maturities, it carries more weight for investment credits spread over five to ten years.

Project owners planning to secure bank financing in the coming weeks would be wise to lock in their terms now, while the upward movement remains marginal, rather than waiting for a potential more significant tightening of monetary policy.

Conversely, for savers and investors holding products indexed to the TMM, this slight increase improves the yield on their investments, albeit symbolically.

A Signal to Watch, Not an Alarm

This development is a signal to monitor closely rather than a cause for alarm. The critical question remains: will the BCT confirm this direction in the coming months, or will the August episode prove to be an isolated adjustment?