Global Risks Report: Aging Population Becomes a Pressing Global Issue
According to the 20th edition of the Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum, population aging is becoming a pressing global issue, particularly for so-called "super-aged" societies. This term refers to countries where more than 20% of the population is over 65 years old, a situation already reached by Japan and Germany. By 2035, several other countries, mainly in Europe and East Asia, are expected to join this group, while the global population aged 65 and over is expected to grow by 36%, from 857 million in 2025 to 1.2 billion.
Pressures on Public Infrastructure and Social Security Systems
Super-aged societies risk facing increasing pressures on their public infrastructure and social security systems. As short-term crises absorb public budgets, the financing of these essential sectors is often relegated to the background. Moreover, state pension systems, as well as those financed by employers or private organizations, may face significant deficits, putting the financial security of older populations at risk.
Labor Shortage: A Major Challenge
Another major challenge for these societies is the labor shortage. This risk, ranked second globally, tops the list of concerns in Europe and East Asia, where population aging is most pronounced. 21 countries, including Japan and Germany, consider this problem their top priority, and 40 others identify it as one of their top five risks. This situation will have a particularly severe impact on the healthcare and social assistance sectors, which are already struggling to meet the needs of an aging population.
Healthcare and Social Services: A Growing Demand
Professions related to care are expected to experience strong growth in demand by 2030. However, healthcare and social services systems, which represent around 11.5% of global employment, risk lacking resources and qualified personnel. Public spending in this area, already limited by debt accumulation and competing budget priorities, such as security and defense, may not be sufficient to meet growing needs.
Immigration as a Solution?
To address this shortage, some countries are turning to immigration to attract qualified workers in the care sector. However, this strategy can lead to a brain drain in younger economies, compromising their ability to capitalize on their demographic dividend. These countries may, in turn, face the same challenges related to population aging in the decades to come.
Two Deep-Seated Trends
Two deep-seated trends are exacerbating this issue globally: declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, often associated with chronic health problems. These dynamics will continue to put pressure on "super-aged" societies, requiring global solutions and international cooperation to avoid systemic crises.
