The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Blockade: A Wake-Up Call for Tunisia’s Energy Sovereignty

The 2026 blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has underscored an undeniable reality: natural gas has become a geopolitical instrument of power, just like oil. This strategic chokepoint handled nearly one-fifth of global oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) flows. While crude oil exports have nearly recovered to pre-war levels, LNG exports from the Gulf remained more than 75% below pre-crisis levels as of early October. This disruption severely shook global markets: the TTF, the European benchmark for gas prices, surged from a pre-conflict range of €28–40/MWh to €80/MWh, with Goldman Sachs warning that prices could exceed €100/MWh by December.

Tunisia’s Structural Vulnerability

For Tunisia, this crisis highlights a deep structural vulnerability. By the end of July 2026, external resources already covered two-thirds of the country’s primary energy needs, pushing the dependency rate to 66%, up from 63% a year earlier. Simultaneously, the energy trade deficit widened by 29%, reaching 8.27 billion dinars. This exposure is particularly concerning given that natural gas accounts for 90.8% of national electricity production, while renewable energies contribute only 9.2%—far short of the 35% target set for 2030.

The Fragility of Energy Rents

This dependency is compounded by the fragility of an energy rent that the country only partially controls. The Transmed pipeline, which traverses 370 km of Tunisian territory between Algeria and Sicily, generates a royalty of 5.25% to 6.75% of the gas transported. In 2022, this revenue amounted to 1.828 billion dinars. However, this windfall remains subject to the strategic decisions of Algiers and Rome, as illustrated by the 21% decline in in-kind royalties by the end of July.

From Transit Territory to Platform Country

According to the IACE (Tunisian Industrial and Commercial Advisory Council), this situation does not dictate an inevitable trajectory. While geopolitics constrains energy choices, Tunisia retains significant room for maneuver to regain control over its energy mix, infrastructure, and industrial sectors. The goal is to move beyond the status of a mere transit territory to become a true platform country, capable of producing, connecting, and transforming energy resources.

Key Infrastructure Projects

Two major projects illustrate this ambition:

• ELMED (Electricity Link between Mediterranean Countries): The electrical interconnection with Italy, with a capacity of 600 MW and an investment of approximately €850 million, is scheduled to come online in 2028.
• SoutH2 Hydrogen Corridor: Expected in the early 2030s, this corridor opens new perspectives for green hydrogen.

However, the realization of these projects remains conditional on securing financing, partnerships, and long-term commitments.

Four Priority Strategic Directions

To navigate this complex landscape, four priority orientations emerge:

1. Operationalizing the 2035 Energy Strategy: Translate strategic goals into actionable projects by accelerating grid modernization, developing energy storage solutions, and evaluating a long-term nuclear option. The energy transition must become a lever for economic and industrial competitiveness.

2. Diversifying Partnerships: Strengthen ties with Algeria, Italy, Libya, and the European Union to multiply supply options and build more balanced interdependencies. Sovereignty does not mean autarky; it means the capacity to choose partners and preserve decision-making margins.

3. Converting Geographic Advantage into Industrial Value: For green hydrogen, the priority should not be export at all costs, but the development of domestic uses, particularly green ammonia production and the decarbonization of industry.

4. Enhancing Governance and Energy Diplomacy: Establish a predictable regulatory framework, rigorous project monitoring, and enhanced expertise in negotiation. These elements are essential to making energy cooperation a true instrument of economic sovereignty.