Tunisia's Public Finances: A Delicate Period (2021-2024)
Tunisia has gone through a challenging period for its public finances between 2021 and 2024, marked by repeated global crises and the need to maintain the state's social role. According to the latest publication by the IACE, titled "Budget Execution and Vulnerability of Public Finances," the public debt has remained above 80% of GDP, indicating persistent pressure.
Fragile Tax Revenues
After relatively good revenues in 2021 and 2022, the country saw its budget resources slow down in 2023 and 2024. The cause: sluggish growth and a weakening tax collection effort. The tax on non-petroleum companies, in particular, has plummeted. Despite this, the tax burden has remained high as economic activity has slowed down. The IACE highlights that over 90% of the state's resources still depend on tax revenues, making the system highly vulnerable to new economic shocks.
Controlled Expenditures but Rigid Charges
According to the same report, the wage bill has been relatively well-contained, and investments have maintained some dynamism. However, subsidies have surged between 2021 and 2023 and have stabilized at over 7,000 million Tunisian dinars (Mtnd) per year since 2022. Faced with a lack of external resources, the state has massively resorted to domestic borrowing. In January 2024, the Central Bank even had to exceptionally finance the budget to the tune of 7,000 Mtnd, proof of persistent tensions.
A Weighty Debt
The figures confirm a structural vulnerability. The public debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 70% since 2020. Debt servicing represents over 40% of budget resources, crossing a critical threshold. Rigid expenditures – salaries, debt, and subsidies – now account for nearly 89% of the total budget in 2024, according to the IACE. This leaves very little room to finance new projects or invest in fundamental reforms.
Early 2025: A Relative Budget Surplus
As of the end of March 2025, the budget execution shows a surplus of 2,078 Mtnd. This "reprieve" is linked to an increase in tax revenues, a decrease in management expenses, and the contribution of external financing, notably via a credit from the Afreximbank. However, the IACE specifies that this surplus remains primarily "accounting" in nature: the 33.7% decrease in investment expenditures and the regular recourse to the Central Bank demonstrate that the treasury remains under tension, especially towards the end of the year.
