2026 Finance Law: A New Era for Tunisia's Economy
The 2026 finance law came into effect on January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in Tunisia's economic governance. Mohamed Louzir, Secretary-General of the Tunisian-French Chamber of Commerce and Industry, deciphered the budget during an information session held on January 8, 2026, revealing a set of unprecedented measures in a fragile economic context.
Key Provisions of the 2026 Finance Law
- The Central Bank will provide 11 billion dinars to the state over 15 years, interest-free and with a 3-year grace period, covering the entire budget deficit.
- Individuals are now allowed to open foreign currency accounts, relaxing exchange regulations while maintaining strict control.
- Tunisian families abroad will benefit from customs exemptions for importing vehicles, subject to income conditions.
- The ban on cash transactions has been lifted, and a wealth tax has been introduced.
Controversial Innovations
- Salary increases are directly inscribed in the law, bypassing traditional negotiations between the UGTT, UTICA, and economic partners.
- Parliamentary debates were heated regarding the rates, which were ultimately not specified in the final text.
Economic Performance: A Mixed Bag
Tunisia's economic performance has been disappointing, with:
- A catastrophic 0.5% growth rate in 2024, compared to the expected 1.2%.
- A projected 2.4% growth rate in 2025, below the expected 3.2%.
- A third quarter with zero growth in 2025.
- A targeted 3.3% growth rate in 2026, which Louzir believes is achievable only with structural reforms.
Regional Comparison
Tunisia's economic performance lags behind its regional counterparts:
- China maintains a 5% growth rate.
- Libya's growth rate oscillates between 12.3% and 16.1%.
- Algeria's growth rate ranges from 4% to 8%, thanks to a diversification effort beyond hydrocarbons.
- Morocco is expected to finish between 4% and 4.5% after revision.
- Tunisia joins the pack of European economies with stagnant growth.
Inflation and Energy Dependence
- Inflation has receded but remains a concern, with:
- A peak of 9% in 2023.
- A decline to 7% in 2024.
- A projected 5.6% in 2025.
- These rates exceed regional standards: 1% in China, 2.4% in Europe, 1.8% in Algeria, 2% in Libya and Morocco.
- The Central Bank's monetary injection could potentially reverse this downward trend, but the question remains open.
- Energy dependence is critical, with:
- A dependence rate increasing from 8.4% in 2010 to 41.8% in 2015 and 64.3% in 2025.
- Exposure to global price fluctuations, while subsidies weigh heavily on public accounts.
Public Finances: A Structural Problem
- Historical analysis since 2010 reveals a worrying imbalance:
- The deficit has exploded by 743%.
- Investment has only progressed by 21%.
- Revenues have increased by 247% during the same period.
- Louzir points to a structural problem requiring deep reforms, beyond a simple conjunctural accident.
- For 2026, the deficit will exceed 11 billion dinars, representing over 25% of the total budget of 79 billion dinars.
- Debt repayments will reach 23.2 billion dinars, and the wage bill will amount to 25 billion dinars, absorbing most available resources.
Taxation and Revenue
- Tax pressure in Tunisia now rivals that of OECD countries and exceeds that of African countries by 16 points.
- Tax revenues represent 75% of total expenditures, primarily financing the state's current operations.
- The corporate tax on non-petroleum companies has jumped by 113% in three years, from 2.8 billion dinars in 2022 to 5.9 billion dinars expected in 2025.
- For 2026, tax revenues are projected at 47.7 billion dinars, with the exception of the 4% exceptional contribution and the wealth tax, which does not truly increase taxation.
Unrecovered VAT and Wealth Tax
- Louzir's calculation reveals a significant shortfall in VAT revenue, with a theoretical generation of nearly 20 billion dinars, compared to actual revenues of 11-12 billion dinars.
- This difference of 7-8 billion dinars is a colossal loss, attributable to cash transactions, the informal economy, and tax evasion.
- The wealth tax's actual yield remains an enigma, with statistics unavailable, and its potential impact on investment and growth is a concern.
Conclusion
The 2026 finance law introduces significant changes to Tunisia's economic landscape, with both opportunities and challenges. While the law aims to address the country's structural problems, its success depends on the implementation of deep reforms and the ability to overcome persistent fragilities.
