Central Bank Governors in Istanbul: Navigating Monetary Policy in a Fragmented World

Istanbul, September 13–14, 2026 – Convening for the 8th edition of the OIC-COMCEC Central Bank Governors’ Forum, member governors addressed a critical and unambiguous theme: how monetary policy can effectively respond to a geopolitically fragmented world. Fethi Zouhaier Nouri, Governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), delivered a compelling case for enhanced peer-to-peer cooperation during the session.

Geopolitical Tensions as Direct Economic Drivers

According to Governor Nouri, international tensions are no longer externalities to economies; they exert direct pressure on balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves, and supply chains. He identified three primary transmission channels: energy, food security, and external financing.

Nouri detailed the mechanics of these shocks, noting that a 10% spike in oil prices typically triggers:

A 7% increase in natural gas prices.
A 5.4% rise in fertilizer costs.

These initial shocks have delayed but significant repercussions on electricity bills and bread prices. Citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, Nouri highlighted that such shocks disproportionately affect low-income economies, weighing 2.5 times heavier on them compared to advanced economies.

Tunisia: A Concrete Case Study

The BCT Governor presented specific Tunisian data to illustrate these global dynamics:

Energy Deficit: Reached approximately 7 billion Tunisian dinars by the end of June 2026, marking a 35% year-on-year increase.
Food Security: In 2022, Tunisia’s dependence on Russian and Ukrainian wheat peaked at 55%.
Inflation Control: Despite these pressures, inflation has since been brought down to 5.1%.

Implications for Tunisian Operators and OIC Trade

For Tunisian businesses exposed to import risks—particularly in energy, agricultural inputs, and raw materials—this diagnosis underscores the urgent need to:

Hedge foreign exchange risks.
Diversify supply sources.

Furthermore, the BCT’s proposed initiatives for local currency settlements, if implemented, could ultimately reduce financing costs for intra-OIC trade, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) engaged in exports.