Tunisian Economy: A Mixed Bag of Growth and Challenges
The Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Economics (ITCEQ) has released its economic dashboard for December 2024, providing a comprehensive overview of the country's economic performance. The latest figures offer a mixed picture, with some indicators pointing to growth and others highlighting challenges.
Key Economic Indicators
- GDP growth rate: 1.8% for Q3 2024, a progressive increase from 0.2% in Q1 and 1% in Q2.
- Industrial investment intentions: -15.82% decline from H1 2023 to H1 2024.
- Unemployment rate: Stabilized at 16%.
- Inflation rate: 6.6% in November 2024, following a relative decline.
- Exchange rates: 1 USD = 3.156 DT in November 2024, up from 3.097 DT in October 2024. 1 EUR = 3.396 DT in November 2024, up from 3.361 DT in October 2024.
- Budget deficit: -994.2 MD for the first nine months of 2024, an improvement from -1424.3 MD in the same period in 2023.
Drivers of Growth
Two sectors have been the bright spots of the Tunisian economy: Agriculture and Oil Activities, with growth rates of 10.6% and 30.3%, respectively. The agricultural sector has driven export growth and improved the food trade balance, thanks to the export of dates and olive oil. After a deficit of 536.6 MDT in H1 2023, the sector has recorded a surplus of 1834.7 MDT in H1 2024.
Outlook for 2025
The 2025 budget law has not introduced new projects, but rather revived stalled projects that have the potential to boost economic growth, create wealth, and generate employment. One such project is the "Aghlabide Medical City" project. The government has made the realization of these projects conditional on the completion of detailed and foolproof feasibility studies. These projects are expected to create thousands of jobs, develop infrastructure, and energize the economic ecosystem.
Additionally, 2025 will mark the start of production for several Renewable Energy projects, which will increase the share of renewable energy in the Tunisian energy mix, reducing energy costs and the energy trade deficit.
Overall, while the Tunisian economy faces challenges, there are reasons to be optimistic about its growth prospects in 2025.
