Energy and Metal Prices Expected to Surge in 2026
The World Bank has released its Commodity Markets Outlook report, published on April 28, indicating that energy and metal prices are likely to experience a significant increase in 2026.
Energy Prices to Reach Highest Level Since 2022
Energy prices are expected to rise by 24% in 2026, reaching their highest level since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022. This surge is attributed to the conflict in the Middle East, which has caused disruptions to energy infrastructure and maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a major shock to global supply. Approximately 35% of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through this strategic route.
Oil Market Remains Under Pressure
The price of Brent oil is expected to average $86 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025. If disruptions persist, prices could reach as high as $115 per barrel. European natural gas prices are also expected to increase, with the World Bank forecasting a 25% rise in 2026 due to tensions in the supply of liquefied natural gas.
Metal Prices to Reach Record Highs
Overall, base metal prices are expected to increase by 19% in 2026, driven by sustained demand from data centers, electric vehicles, and investments in renewable energy. Several industrial metals are likely to reach historic highs, including aluminum, copper, and tin. According to the World Bank, the combination of strong technological demand and persistent supply constraints is supporting this trend.
Precious Metals to Follow Suit
The report predicts an average increase of 42% in 2026 for precious metals. Geopolitical uncertainty is driving investors towards safe-haven assets, such as gold and silver.
Risks Remain Oriented to the Upside
The World Bank notes that risks remain skewed to the upside, with a potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East likely to further exacerbate pressure on energy and metal prices in the coming months.
