UN Takes Proactive Approach to Mitigate El Niño's Impact
The United Nations is taking action before the first damages occur, anticipating the return of the El Niño climate phenomenon. The UN is ready to mobilize up to $100 million through its Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to finance preventive measures in the most exposed countries. This decision marks a change in strategy: investing before disasters rather than only funding emergency relief after they occur.
Early Action to Protect Vulnerable Populations
According to Tom Fletcher, UN Deputy Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, more than $20 million has already been disbursed in six countries to support anticipatory actions. The goal is to protect populations before droughts, floods, or heatwaves destroy crops, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
El Niño's Predicted Impact
UN agency forecasts indicate that El Niño is expected to cause extreme heat episodes, droughts, and heavy rainfall in different regions. Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia, and the Pacific are among the most exposed areas. The UN estimates that this episode could be more severe than the 2023-2024 one, as many countries remain fragile due to conflicts, population displacement, and a persistent humanitarian funding crisis.
High-Risk Areas
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) warns particularly about the Horn of Africa. In Somalia, where nearly 4.8 million people already depend on humanitarian aid, climate models predict up to 60% probability of above-normal rainfall in some areas. The organization recalls that El Niño-related floods in 2023 destroyed nearly 13,000 tons of crops and estimates that a new episode could have even more severe consequences for already weakened communities.
Country-Specific Risks
- Kenya is preparing for a high risk of flooding and landslides
- Uganda fears an increase in population displacement and flood-related diseases
- Pakistan may suffer from further drought and extreme heat
- Bangladesh and Afghanistan remain exposed to flooding
Anticipatory Funding
Anticipatory funding can support:
- Early warning systems
- Cash transfers to vulnerable households
- Access to clean water
- Livestock protection
- Actions to preserve crops
A More Effective and Cost-Efficient Approach
For the UN, this approach is both more effective and less costly than interventions deployed after damages have already occurred. "We need early and flexible funding," insisted Tom Fletcher, calling on donors to invest more in anticipation.
