Monthly Estimates for Tunisia's Growth in 2024
Every month, we get new estimates for Tunisia's growth in 2024. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a 1.6% growth rate, which has been confirmed by the Minister of Economy. The Central Bank also confirms this rate, providing more details. It expects a 8.6% increase in the value added of agriculture and fishing, compared to 0.9% for other sectors.
To recall, for the first half of the year, these rates are respectively 5.40% and 5.61%. In other words, we need an 11.9% growth rate for agriculture and fishing, and 1.6% for industry and services. This is not as easy as some people think, and this month's figures will confirm it.
Indeed, agriculture has a better chance of reaching its objectives since October has been a rainy month, which will improve the production of market garden crops. For industries, it's more complicated, as it largely depends on European demand. In the third quarter, last week's figures showed that the eurozone economy grew at a faster pace than expected, with a 0.9% increase over the July-September 2024 period, compared to 0.6% over the previous three months. Over a year, growth stands at 0.4%. The consensus among economists was respectively 0.8% and 0.2%. It remains to be seen if our main partners, led by Germany, will outperform, pulling Tunisian exports with them.
For services, the commercial dynamic, with the back-to-school season in September, should post the best sectoral growth rates. Consumption remains, despite everything, the driving force behind growth, even if it has shown signs of weakening in recent months.
In any case, the lower the 2024 GDP growth rate, the more likely we are to approach the 3.2% estimate for 2025, as the favorable base effect will play in our favor.
