October 2026: A Calm Month for Public Finances Ahead of the 2027 Budget Debate

October will be a significant month for public finances, not due to any exceptional financial pressures, but rather because it marks the launch of the debates surrounding the 2027 Finance Bill.

Current figures suggest a relatively quiet period ahead. On the local debt front, the most critical event is the maturity of the 6.3% October 2026 Treasury Bond (BTA), with a principal amount of 817.5 million MTND, scheduled for October 14. The key question now is whether this will be refinanced through an auction of an equivalent amount or exchanged for longer-maturity BTAs.

The calendar also includes two Treasury Certificates (BTCT):

• 52-week BTCT maturing on October 13, 2026, for 156.2 million MTND.
• 26-week BTCT maturing on October 23, 2026, for 50 million MTND.

No repayment maturities are scheduled for national loan tranches during this period.

Regarding external debt, a tranche of USD 26 million is expected under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) contracted with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The 2026 Finance Law specified that the total amount to be repaid over the year amounts to USD 234 million, distributed across nine monthly tranches, although the specific months were not detailed.

Overall, October 2026 does not pose a significant pressure on the Treasury. The same holds true for the subsequent months, as the debt service page for 2026 is nearly turned. The end of the year appears to be dedicated to preparing for 2027, which is expected to be significantly better than previous fiscal years. Indeed, debt service levels are projected to return to those seen in 2023, following three historically challenging years.