Sovereign Debt Payment Calendar: A Comfortable Year Ahead
It would be challenging to find a more lenient sovereign debt payment calendar than this year's. On the local front, there is only one BTCT 26 weeks 09012026 line for 123 million dinars. Regarding external debt, the only possible maturity would be one of the nine tranches scheduled under the IMF loan repayment via the Extended Credit Facility 2016-2019, amounting to $26 million. However, we do not have the exact dates for external debt repayments.
Factors Contributing to a Comfortable Situation
To achieve this comfortable situation, it is essential to recognize the work done by the Treasury in recent years, particularly in 2025. The state will have increasing room for maneuver throughout the year to improve the quality of its intervention. Directing resources towards investment and paying suppliers would be a significant step in improving public finances.
Gradual Progress Expected
In our opinion, this can only be achieved progressively, as it is necessary to see the impact of the finance law provisions on public spending in certain areas, such as payroll and recruitment effects, as well as the extent of support the state should provide to key entities, such as social security funds, for example.
Treasury Intervention on the Local Debt Market
Another point to watch this year is the Treasury's intervention on the local debt market. Will it continue to raise massive resources, or will it embark on local debt reduction with financial institutions? Theoretically, it can do so as long as it has the possibility of drawing on the 11 billion dinars available to it at the Central Bank. We believe that, in the interest of good management and consistency with monetary policy, this financing would be reserved for specific interventions, such as foreign exchange market operations or repayment of important lines without going through the refinancing box. We will meet you monthly to closely follow the evolution of this file.
