Tunisia Among 19 African Countries at High Risk of Over-Indebtedness
According to Afreximbank's February 2025 report, Tunisia is one of 19 African countries presenting a high risk of over-indebtedness. Although the situation is not yet irreversible, it requires constant vigilance.
AAMFI Deploys Anti-Crisis "Radar"
In response to the urgency, the Alliance of African Multilateral Financial Institutions (AAMFI) launched an early warning system on January 29, 2026. This project is not a coincidence; it was born out of the painful lessons learned from the crises in Ghana and Zambia.
In these two countries, the lack of prevention turned debt into a real financial quagmire. Without an alert mechanism, renegotiations often turned into endless legal battles, paralyzing the economy and penalizing both the state and its creditors.
Detecting the Fire Before it Spreads
The concept is simple: act before it's too late. This new device works like a "financial radar" that monitors key indicators such as the debt-to-GDP ratio or the state's ability to generate revenue. The objective is threefold:
- Alert governments to the first signs of slippage
- Coordinate technical and financial assistance upstream
- Avoid brutal showdowns during debt restructuring
And What About Tunisia?
Afreximbank's finding is clear: while nine countries (such as Sudan or Zimbabwe) are already in a critical over-indebtedness situation, Tunisia is in the "orange zone". The message is clear: we still have room for maneuver, but the right to error is dwindling. The transition to the red zone will depend on our ability to use these new tools to adjust our economic policies in real-time.
Key Takeaways
- Tunisia is at high risk of over-indebtedness, according to Afreximbank
- AAMFI has launched an early warning system to detect potential financial crises
- The system aims to alert governments, coordinate assistance, and avoid brutal debt restructuring
- Tunisia is in the "orange zone" and must use the new tools to adjust its economic policies and avoid transitioning to the red zone.
