Tunisia Records Notable Widening of Trade Deficit in Q1 2025
Tunisia has seen a significant widening of its trade deficit in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 5,050.5 million Tunisian dinars (Mtnd), compared to 3,027.4 Mtnd during the same period in 2024, according to data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). This deficit is explained by a 5.9% decrease in exports, which amount to 15,325.1 Mtnd, while imports have increased by 5.5%, reaching 20,375.5 Mtnd.
This imbalance directly affects the coverage rate of imports by exports, which has fallen to 75.2%, compared to 84.3% a year earlier.
Export Decline Explained by Energy and Agri-Food Sectors
The decline in exports is largely due to a 34% drop in the energy sector, with refined product sales plummeting. The agri-food sector has also suffered, with an 18% decrease due to a contraction in olive oil sales. The textile sector (-2.6%), mechanical and electrical industries (-2.4%), and phosphates and derivatives (-8.6%) are also experiencing declines.
Imports Boosted by Investment
On the import side, the increase is mainly driven by capital goods (+18.3%) and raw materials and semi-finished products (+5.1%), indicating a possible restart of industrial investment. Consumer goods have also increased (+13.9%), while energy products (-9.6%) and food products (-2.1%) are declining.
Contrasting Dynamics with Trading Partners
The European Union remains Tunisia's main trading partner, absorbing 70.1% of Tunisian exports. However, exports to France (-5.7%), Italy (-11.3%), and especially Spain (-35.3%) are declining, despite an increase with Germany (+7.8%) and the Netherlands (+13.4%).
Trade with Arab countries is showing a positive dynamic, with notable increases with Libya (+39.6%), Morocco (+38.6%), and especially Egypt (+155.7%).
As for imports from the European Union, they represent 42.9% of the total and are increasing slightly (+2.3%). Outside the EU, China (+60.9%) and Turkey (+13.7%) are recording the largest increases.
Energy Remains the Main Deficit Post
Analysis by product groups shows that energy is by far the main factor in the deficit, with a negative balance of 2,881.7 Mtnd. This is followed by raw materials and semi-finished products (-1,616.2 Mtnd), capital goods (-927.9 Mtnd), and consumer goods (-239.5 Mtnd). Only the "food" group is recording a surplus (+614.8 Mtnd), which slightly mitigates the overall imbalance.
