Tunisia’s Trade Balance: A Complex Picture Beyond the Widening Deficit

The figures for Tunisia’s foreign trade over the first eight months of 2026 reveal a situation more complex than a simple widening of the trade deficit. While Tunisia continues to boost its exports, its imports are growing at a faster pace. It is this widening gap that is currently weighing on the country’s trade balance.

According to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS), exports reached 44.67 billion dinars between January and August, marking an 8% year-on-year increase. In contrast, imports rose by 12%, reaching 62.5 billion dinars. Consequently, the trade deficit stands at 17.8 billion dinars, up from 14.6 billion dinars during the same period in 2025. The coverage ratio has also declined, falling from 74% to 71%.

This assessment requires nuance. The growth in exports is not negligible and is even robust in several sectors. However, it is insufficient to keep pace with the rise in external purchases. In other words, the issue is not that Tunisia is exporting too little, but rather that its import needs are growing faster than its export revenues.

Energy Remains the Primary Pressure Point

Energy continues to be the main factor straining the balance. The energy deficit reached 8.9 billion dinars, compared to 7.2 billion dinars a year earlier. Imports of energy products surged by 29%. Meanwhile, energy exports grew by 44%, driven largely by increased sales of refined products. Nevertheless, this improvement on the export side is not enough to offset the heavy weight of energy supply costs.

Even excluding energy, the trade deficit remains significant at 8.9 billion dinars. This indicates that the issue extends beyond the energy bill alone. It points more broadly to the structure of trade and the economy’s ability to transform import needs into productive capacity and, ultimately, into export revenues.

Sectoral Performance: Mixed Results

The performance of certain sectors shows that there is still room for growth. The agri-food industry recorded a 21% increase, driven notably by olive oil, whose exports reached 3.77 billion dinars, up from 2.70 billion dinars a year prior. Mechanical and electrical industries also advanced by 8.5%.

These results are significant as they demonstrate that Tunisia still possesses sectors capable of generating higher external revenues. However, this momentum is uneven. The textile, apparel, and leather sectors declined by 4.8%, while exports of mines, phosphates, and derivatives fell by 12%.

Import Trends and Investment Signals

On the import side, increases were observed across nearly all major product groups:

• Food products: +17%
• Consumer goods: +8%
• Raw materials and semi-finished products: +8%
• Capital goods: +6%

This last trend should be viewed with caution. A rise in capital goods imports is not necessarily a negative signal. It may reflect investment, equipment renewal, or an expansion of production capacity. The real challenge lies in determining whether these imports subsequently contribute to increased production, import substitution, or strengthened exports.

Geographic Trade Patterns

The geography of trade also confirms certain constants. The European Union absorbs 70% of Tunisian exports. Sales are growing particularly toward France, Italy, and Germany. Simultaneously, Tunisia is seeking to develop other markets. Exports to Egypt and Saudi Arabia are rising sharply, while those to Algeria and Morocco are declining.

Conclusion: A Call for Structural Adjustment

Ultimately, the figures for the first eight months do not tell a story of generalized weakness in exports. Instead, they depict an economy that continues to sell abroad but whose import bill is rising even faster. The current challenge is to strengthen the sectors that create the most export value, broaden market access, and better transform necessary production imports into additional export capacity.

With a deficit of nearly 17.9 billion dinars after just eight months, the question is no longer just about how to export more. It is also about ensuring that export growth sustainably catches up with import growth.

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Key Data Highlights

Top 5 Customer Countries

1. France
2. Italy
3. Germany
4. Spain
5. Libya

Top 5 Supplier Countries

1. China
2. Italy
3. France
4. Germany
5. Algeria

Sector Ranking by Export Growth

• Energy: +44.3%
• Agri-food Industries: +20.8%
• Mechanical and Electrical Industries: +8.5%
• Textile, Apparel, and Leather: -4.8%
• Mines, Phosphates, and Derivatives: -12.0%