Climate Change Threatens Tunisia's Cereal Sector
Impacts on Yields and Soil Erosion The cereal sector is the most exposed to the effects of climate change in Tunisia. Several studies conducted in the north of the country have revealed that, by 2030, yield losses could reach -9.62% for soft wheat, -6.78% for barley, and -2.04% for durum wheat, according to a study titled "The Limits of a Food Security Policy: The Case of the Cereal Sector".
The acceleration of soil erosion could lead to a reduction of around 20% of arable land dedicated to cereals by 2030, with a 40% decrease in rainfed crop production, particularly in the north of the country. These data are from a report by the Tunisian Water and Economy Observatories, in collaboration with the Nomad 08 Redeyef Association.
Climate Projections
The National Meteorological Institute (INM) published climate projections in 2018, announcing an increase in average temperatures in Tunisia of 2.1°C to 2.4°C by 2050, and 4.2°C to 5.2°C by 2100. A decrease in annual precipitation, estimated between -1% and -14% by 2050, and between -18% and -27% by 2100, is also expected.
National Adaptation Plan
In response to these challenges, Tunisia adopted a National Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (PNA) in August 2018, funded by the Green Fund to the tune of $3 million (approximately 8.29 million dinars). However, no specific sectoral strategy for the agricultural sector has been implemented, notes the study.
Multiple Impacts of Climate Change
The impacts of climate change are multiple: coastal degradation, land submersion with repercussions on agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure, as well as desertification and alteration of water resources. Increased pollution of surface water, resulting from soil leaching and the transport of chemical substances, could also worsen the quality of water resources, already affected by the overexploitation of groundwater and increased salinity.
Socio-Economic Risks
These climate changes represent a major socio-economic threat. The intensification of extreme climate events will accelerate soil degradation, leading to a decrease in agricultural yields and, consequently, a decrease in farmers' incomes.
Dependence on Foreign Seeds
The study highlights Tunisia's growing dependence on foreign genetically modified seeds, encouraged by international financial institutions. For decades, the Tunisian state has promoted the use of these seeds by distributing them free of charge to producers. This policy has contributed to the emergence of numerous importing companies, often affiliated with multinationals, which control the global seed market. These monopolies develop technologies that make hybrid seeds sterile, increasing the dependence of Tunisian farmers on imports.
Loss of Local Varieties
Today, although the National Gene Bank (BNG) conserves nearly 100 local wheat varieties, only five are still exploited, compared to 50 in the 1940s. This decline in the use of local seeds threatens their genetic diversity. Many Tunisian cereal farmers believe that imported varieties are less adapted to local climate conditions and require more chemical treatments, increasing production costs and environmental and health risks.
Lack of Regulatory Framework
In the absence of a legal framework governing the seed sector, the protection of national genetic resources remains insufficient. Some producers have begun to reintroduce traditional seeds, but without official support, the trend towards abandoning cereal production could worsen, exacerbating Tunisia's dependence on cereal imports.
Conclusion
In the face of these challenges, it is imperative to rethink natural resource management strategies to anticipate the impacts of climate change and implement mitigation measures. The adoption of alternatives to modified seeds, strengthening the regulatory framework, and orienting agricultural policies towards sustainable solutions are now unavoidable priorities, concludes the study.
