Impact of Recruitment Campaign on Salary Mass
One of the issues widely discussed by analysts is the impact of the large-scale recruitment campaign by the administration and public enterprises on the salary mass. Relative to GDP, these remunerations weigh heavily, representing a burden on the state's finances and a concrete obstacle to improving the sovereign rating.
Paradoxically, in its latest report, Moody's did not express concern over this policy and presented a scenario of stability for this ratio in the coming years.
To better understand the situation, it is sufficient to take a look at the budget execution figures as of September 2025 and in recent years.
Over the first nine months of the year, remunerations totaled 17,416.6 MTND. If we annualize these expenses, we will have a sum of 23,222.1 MTND. Now, since a large part of the appointments take effect during the last months of the year, with a retroactive effect, this figure could reach 23,500 MTND. In other words, there is a saving of nearly 900 MTND compared to what was planned in the 2025 finance law.
And this is not new, as the remunerations for 2024 totaled 22,273.1 MTND, compared to initial projections of 23,711.1 MTND.
Thus, we believe that even if the executive plans for an envelope of 25,267 MTND for 2026, the actual expenses would be much lower. The approach to building the budget is very cautious, opting for the worst-case scenario in terms of expenses, in order to avoid any bad surprises that could occur during the exercise. This allows for a very valuable margin of maneuver to face the unforeseen.
