Tunisia’s 2027 Budget: Industry, Mines, and Energy Mission Sees 48.2% Surge

The budget for the Industry, Mines, and Energy mission is projected to reach 7,892.8 million Tunisian dinars (MTD) in 2027, up from 5,325.6 MTD the previous year. This represents a significant 48.2% increase, making it one of the most substantial rises in the 2027 Draft Finance Law (PLF).

This sharp escalation is primarily driven by increased spending on subsidies for fuels and fertilizers provided to the Tunisian Chemical Group (GCT). These forecasts were presented on Tuesday, November 3, by Salah Zouari, Minister of Equipment and Housing, who is currently overseeing the department.

Key Drivers: Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions

This budgetary shift occurs against a backdrop of rising international oil prices and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The surge in hydrocarbon prices directly inflates the cost of energy subsidies, which are expected to hit 7,090 MTD in 2027, compared to 4,993 MTD in 2026—a 42% increase. Consequently, energy subsidies remain the largest single expenditure within the mission’s budget.

Budget Structure and Allocation

The weight of these commitments is clearly reflected in the budget’s structure:

• Total Envelope: 7,892.8 MTD
• Intervention Spending: 7,823.2 MTD (approx. 99% of total credits)
  • This category is up 48.6% year-on-year.
  • This concentration leaves a very limited margin for the department’s current operational expenses.

Development Interventions: Development spending is set to jump from 60.5 MTD in 2026 to 551.8 MTD in 2027. This increase is largely due to the allocation of 500 MTD specifically for financing agricultural chemical fertilizers under a program benefiting the GCT.

Personnel and Strategic Funds

• Payroll: The salary mass is expected to rise by 20%, reaching 47.9 MTD. This increase covers:

  • Recruitment drives in 2025 and 2026.
  • The integration of staff from business centers under the Agency for the Promotion of Industry and Innovation.
  • The planned arrival of 106 new agents in 2027.

• Strategic Allocations:

  • ~80 MTD for the Fund for the Development of Competitiveness in the industrial, services, and artisanal sectors.
  • 45 MTD for the Energy Transition Fund.
  • Goal: To support the productive fabric and facilitate the transition to more sustainable energy sources.

Medium-Term Outlook (2028–2029)

In the medium term, mission expenditures are projected to peak at 7,933.6 MTD in 2028 before declining to 7,656.6 MTD in 2029. However, this trajectory remains heavily dependent on the evolution of oil markets and regional geopolitical uncertainties.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance for Industrial Policy

Beyond the immediate budgetary surge, the 2027 budget highlights a complex equation for Tunisia’s industrial policy: absorbing the rising cost of energy subsidies while preserving resources for investment, competitiveness, and the energy transition. This constraint continues to weigh on public finances, narrowing the room for maneuver dedicated to long-term development.